[28] Both the British and Dutch ambassadors in Moscow told the U.S. that China would intervene if UN troops crossed the 38th parallel. Your diverse skills. A variety of organizations working towards different purposes ensure that the intelligence community provides national decision-makers the best picture possible about situations around the world. We are underinvested in analysts in favor of the non-substantive functionaries necessary to run the IC's multiple agencies. Willoughby and MacArthur refused to cooperate with the CIA and denied them access to Army reporting and facilities. 6, 2014, 10. (5) The various plans being considered to revamp the IC do little more than make passing references to analytic issues. Failure may be of the traditional variety: we fail to predict the fall of a friendly government; we do not provide sufficient warning of a surprise attack against one of our allies or interests; we are completely surprised by a state-sponsored terrorist attack; or we fail to detect an unexpected country acquiring a weapon of mass destruction. [2] Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication (MCDP) 2, Intelligence, 52. The year is 2001. As for classic military threats, regional actors will have limited capabilities that could impact on US concerns: Iran in the Persian Gulf, China on its periphery, perhaps Russia against an expanded NATO, and so forth. In the end, we may not suffer a Pearl Harbor, but simply succumb to a series of mistakes that raises questions about an intelligence budget that dwarfs the entire defense budget of most countries.(1). The views expressed in this article are the author’s alone and do not represent those of the United States Marine Corps, the Department of Defense, or the United States Government. Header Image: Chinese POWs captured by U.S. forces, December 1950 | Wikimedia Commons. [22], Shortly before the North’s attack, U.S. SIGINT identified at least six of the nine Chinese armies relocating to Manchuria in preparation for crossing the Yalu River, but U.S. decision makers downplayed the reports. We have to come to grips with the fact that the entire "needs" process and associated tier strategy were ill-conceived for this period of history and need to be fundamentally rethought. Tactical-level intelligence capabilities were almost non-existent on the Korean Peninsula at the outbreak of the war. With the exponential increase in information, the number of politically motivated pundits and opinions is also increasing. Accurate tactical intelligence masked by poor strategic analysis became the “preferred art form” for intelligence reporting from the peninsula. Please check our site map, search feature, or our site navigation on the left Legislative Branch. (1) The combined total annual defense budgets of North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Cuba approximate half that of the US Intelligence Community. Follow the logo below, and you too can contribute to The Bridge: Enjoy what you just read? Peninsula-based SIGINT assets proved vital at the Pusan Perimeter and helped commanders relocate forces to best defend against North Korean attacks. But such a forbidding future will not come to pass. Third Party: Have someone you trust travel to a less restrictive environment and deliver the information via one of the above methods. Once Defense intelligence is consolidated, further steps, perhaps some consolidation of various collection functions, could then be made. uuid:18f38380-3a42-4a8c-9206-699a754536c9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Regionally, there will be, at most, one MRC. Whether we retain something like the current size or are forced to downsize much further than we already have, the failure is inevitable unless we begin to analyze the underlying problems. For the ever-growing number of functionaries in the Community, intelligence is about management. Despite the practice of the last several years, the IC does not have the luxury of deciding it just will not do things. The individual opinions of the generals in Asia led to additional intelligence errors. %���� The intelligence failure was the result of a policy maker’s determination that intelligence support his preconceived views, not challenge them. Because the Command is hardly an unbiased observer of the threat in its area of responsibility, however, it would not be unduly influential in shaping the position of an NIE. US. When senior leaders re-organized and over-emphasized reporting which supported their biases, analysis and reporting fell in step. Nonetheless, more budget cuts are inevitable. In the same vein, should the country decide it wants one super-intelligence agency, then some mechanism would have to be established to institutionalize alternative analysis. Many midlevel managers' priorities are misplaced, and loyalty to one's agency too often has primacy. [9] These inadequate personnel numbers, insufficient regional specialists, and failure to work together laid the groundwork for a national structure incapable of providing timely and accurate intelligence to decision-makers. [6] Tomas R. Johnson, “American Cryptology During the Korean War,” 30. Office of Public Affairs Moreover, while it will be controversial, I believe we should have a much closer relationship with responsible journalists, extending beyond the "backgrounder" process to a more routine give-and-take among professionals interested in accurate information. If you feel it is safe, consider providing these details with your submission: We cannot guarantee a response to every message. best method depends on your personal situation. Ultimately, the policy community is going to look for someone in the government who will provide an unbiased assessment of the varied and multifaceted aspects of security--from the nitty-gritty details of databases to the facts and assessments underlying an evaluation of a foreign country's national security policy. There are many brilliant analysts in these organizations, but corporate objectivity can come under severe pressure. But we are going to begin making more and bigger mistakes more often. 121, Pg 10. You can also mail a letter to a U.S. Embassy or Consulate and request it be forwarded to CIA. Archiving is often suggested as a response, but, given the lack of in-depth research now being done, the utility of this approach is at least open to question. Discover the CIA history, mission, vision and values. [42] “Inchon 1950: Operation Trudy Jackson,” http://www.koreanwaronline.com/arms/Clark.htm. To fulfill this information-clearinghouse function will require us to be far better attuned to the work being done in the academic community, other governmental institutions, industry, and the myriad of other entities that collect and analyze data. This alone suggests that we should concentrate first on Defense intelligence production consolidation--and only then go on to further reorganization. can emerge, and finally unearth there distinct causes with a view to avoid future occurrence. 2012-07-31T04:09:12-04:00 Senior civilian leaders in Washington and senior military leaders in Asia refuted reporting which could have altered the war due to groupthink and preconceived opinions. Frederick Smith is greeted by his father on his arrival at Fort Mason, California, on board the USNS Marine Phoenix, September 14, 1953. At a time when we should be reducing overhead, we are increasing such investment in the mistaken belief that we can manage ourselves out of this mess. The Air Force created their own interrogation team that competed with the Army’s Korean Liaison Office (KLO) and CIA for intelligence, each meeting with limited success. The system is built on fallacious assumptions about what intelligence analysis is and how it is carried out; as such, the system has to fail. Such a regimen would re-establish a true Community in which agencies would have a legitimate basis upon which to debate analytic positions. Many of the foreign systems in R&D will either be drawn out extensively or die on the vine from lack of procurement dollars. At a time when the interrelationship among political, economic, military, social, and cultural factors had become increasingly complex, no agency was postured to conduct truly integrated analysis. The In some ways, the political versus military (CIA versus DIA) issue masks a more obscure but far more acute problem within the Defense intelligence community. When communicating The 111th Signal Service Company was in Korea up until July 1948 collecting on Soviets located directly across the 38th Parallel. %PDF-1.6 (9) I will not actually address State/INR, but this organization shows what can be done with a small number of high-quality people. The prioritization of targets was reflected by the published intelligence requirements. endstream Major General Willoughby, General MacArthur’s Far East Command senior intelligence officer, had only minimal personnel available. Finally, a robust and responsive tactical intelligence capability is necessary to hold the line when higher analysis and leaders make mistakes. [27] Yufan, Hao and Zhihai, Zhai, “China’s Decision to Enter the Korean War: History Revisited”, in The China Quarterly, No. (7) By implication, IC efforts focused on our ability to support two MRCs are misguided. The belief that we can meet crises by moving analysts between disciplines has distinct limitations. Management of intelligence is valued more than collecting and analyzing intelligence, and we thus have fewer and fewer good analysts. By dividing the labor within Defense Intelligence, we have given an increased voice to Command Joint Intelligence Centers (JICs/JAC) and allowed the Service intelligence production organizations to speak virtually for the country on many matters of interest to their particular Service. A large fusion center in Washington would consist of regional, transnational, infrastructure, and technical components, with separate regional elements that address current (J2), basic, and longer term estimative work (a robust staffing of regional offices would ensure proper warfighter support by maintaining a ready pool of experts available for crisis task forces). We will always be concerned about the ways other countries can threaten us and our interests militarily. [24] However, the widespread belief that the Soviet Union would not allow the North Korean or Chinese forces to attack took precedence to the mounting evidence on the ground.[25]. From the vantage point of 2001, intelligence failure is inevitable. Now, however, it is time to stop pretending that the current structure can work and start acknowledging the full extent of the problem. Strategic intelligence analysis and the national intelligence structure failed during the Korean War on two well-known occasions: anticipating the initial North Korean invasion and ignoring the signs of large-scale Chinese intervention. Tactical SIGINT’s value was proven time after time by identifying Chinese attack locations in such instances as the Battle of White Horse Mountain, Battle of Old Baldy, and Pork Chop Hill. There are thousands of analysts "out there." The lack of an actionable national security policy means that to varying degrees we have to "do the world." We are just beginning a major debate about who we are and how we relate to the rest of the world; that debate could easily continue for a decade without anything close to national consensus being achieved. We are on the right track. (8) Once this happens, the IC budget is living on borrowed time. Perhaps the most significant intelligence failure was the inability to separate personal opinions and the desire to please superiors when presenting intelligence: Policy-makers in Washington and military planners throughout the Pacific continuously prepare for situations on the Korean Peninsula. The reasons will be simple: we have gotten away from basics--the collection and unbiased analysis of facts.

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